Does Community Shield provide indicator for Premier League success?

Arsenal face Chelsea in the Community Shield at Wembley on Sunday – but does the trophy provide an indication of the season ahead?

It’s the event that marks the imminent return of top-flight football, when the reigning Premier League champions take on the FA Cup winners at Wembley.

It’s good news for the two London clubs this term: 52 per cent of finalists since 1992 have been crowned Premier League champions in the same season – 13 out of 25.
However, the last finalist to do so was Manchester City in 2011/12, having initially lost the competition 3-2 to rivals United.

In fact, no Community Shield winner has gone on to win the Premier League in the same season since it happened in four consecutive seasons – ending with Manchester United in 2010/11.
Seven winners have proceeded to become domestic league champions over the last 25 years, with United achieving the feat on five occasions and Chelsea twice.

Six Community Shield losers have ended up winning the Premier League during that period: Blackburn, Manchester United, Arsenal and Manchester City.

Despite winners and losers claiming the domestic crown in almost equal measure, 64 per cent of teams that win the Community Shield end up finishing the season in a higher league position than the losers – the average winner has ended the season in third and the loser in fifth.

The biggest negative league disparity between Community Shield winners and runners-up occurred in the inaugural Premier League season.
In August 1992, champions Leeds United beat Liverpool 4-3 but ended the season 11 places behind the Reds in 17th – the lowest season-ending league position for a Community Shield winner during the modern era.

Wigan suffered relegation from the top flight in 2012/13 but won the FA Cup in the same season under Roberto Martinez, making the Latics the only team outside of the Premier League to compete for the Community Shield since 1992 when they lost 2-0 to Manchester United in August 2013.

The biggest season-ending gulf between top-flight finalists came in 2008/09, when United beat Portsmouth 3-1 on penalties and ended the season as champions, while Pompey finished in 14th place.

So, the average Community Shield winner finishes the season 1.6 places higher than the loser and, historically, there’s a 52 per cent chance that either team will win the league.

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