Will Liverpool avoid another mid-season collapse this campaign?

Liverpool suffered a January collapse last season but are they better-equipped to cope this time around? Nick Wright takes a look at the stats and examines the ways in which Jurgen Klopp has attempted to keep his side fresh for the second half of the campaign.

At the start of last January, Liverpool sat second in the Premier League table, six points behind Chelsea and with winnable domestic cup ties to come. Jurgen Klopp’s side had rounded off 2016 with a 1-0 win over Pep Guardiola’s Manchester City. They were entitled to feel optimistic about what lay ahead.

By the end of the month, however, they had dropped to fourth in the Premier League, opening an insurmountable 10-point gap to the leaders. They had lost both legs of their EFL Cup semi-final with Southampton, and their only win in nine games had come against Plymouth Argyle, the League Two side who took them to an FA Cup third-round replay.
Liverpool had lost star man Sadio Mane to the African Cup of Nations, and his absence was compounded by injuries to the likes of Philippe Coutinho, Joel Matip, Nathaniel Clyne and Jordan Henderson. Klopp’s overextended squad was unable to cope with the busy schedule. The dismal run of form derailed a promising season.

One year on, and Liverpool head into 2018 hoping to avoid the same kind of second-half-of-the-season collapse. Ragnar Klavan’s stoppage-time winner ensured they kicked things off with three points against Burnley on New Year’s Day, but can they keep it up?

Schedule
The upshot of being eliminated from the Carabao Cup back in September is that Liverpool’s schedule looks far kinder than last year. Their current total of five January fixtures could rise to seven depending on whether Friday’s FA Cup tie with Everton goes to a replay and whether they reach the next round, but as it stands they have a nine-day break before next Sunday’s meeting with Manchester City.
Liverpool’s scheduled January fixtures
Jan 5: Everton (h) Jan 14: Man City (h) Jan 22: Swansea (a) Jan 30: Huddersfield (a)
Absentees
Klopp will be delighted to be able to call on Sadio Mane this year. The Senegal international, so sorely missed last season, scored Liverpool’s opening goal against Burnley on Monday. With eight other players out, however, Liverpool’s injury list is currently the second longest of any Premier League club behind Watford, according to Physio Room.

Mohamed Salah is still struggling with the groin injury he picked up against Leicester at the weekend, and there are question marks over Coutinho too. The Brazilian is sidelined with a thigh problem, according to Liverpool, but with Barcelona looming and the January transfer window open, his future is far from certain.
Daniel Sturridge, Henderson, Clyne, Alberto Moreno, Marko Grujic and third-choice goalkeeper Adam Bogdan are the other players out. There was a welcome boost on Monday, however, with Adam Lallana making his first start of the season after recovering from a thigh injury.

Klopp’s squad appears to have greater depth than last season, too. The arrival of the £75m Virgil van Dijk gives them a much-needed upgrade in central defence, while summer signings Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain and Dominic Solanke should help them cope while Salah and Coutinho are unavailable.

Rotation
This season has seen a huge shift in Klopp’s approach to team selection. With the extra demands of Champions League football and knowing just how much his players tired last season, he has made 87 line-up changes in the Premier League compared to just 33 at the same stage of the last campaign.

„I think the brilliant thing for Liverpool is that it’s Jurgen Klopp’s second full season in English football,“ said Sky Sports pundit Jamie Carragher last month. „January was a bit of a nightmare for Liverpool last season because of injuries, a loss of form and Sadio Mane going away. But this year he is rotating it much more – he’s changing five or six players each game.“
The rotation policy has opened him up to criticism at times, most notably after he rested Coutinho and Roberto Firmino for Liverpool’s 1-1 draw with Everton on December 10, but could it prove beneficial in the long-run? According to Carragher, Klopp now has the squad depth to make it work.

„He’s got a bench now which looks like a bench a top club should have – he didn’t have that last season,“ he added. „Hopefully you’ll see Liverpool get through this period.“

Running
In addition to freshening up his starting line-up on a regular basis, there is evidence to suggest Klopp has lightened the load on his players. Liverpool still play with more intensity than most Premier League sides, but tracking data reveals an interesting trend.

Having run further and sprinted more than any other Premier League side last season, Liverpool have reduced the intensity of their pressing game. Last season they averaged 587 sprints and 116.4km covered per game, but in this campaign they are now registering 557 sprints per game and covering 113.7km, dropping to third and fifth in the division in each category.
The drop-off can be framed as a problem for Klopp, but coupled with his new rotation policy, it is more likely to be part of a deliberate attempt to conserve energy, and an acknowledgement, perhaps, that the „full-throttle“ approach he employed at Borussia Dortmund might not be sustainable for an entire season in England.

Looking back, he hinted as much in an interview with German TV channel Sport1 back in April. „The league is super intense, it demands a lot from you,“ he said. „It’s a notch above the Bundesliga.“

Conclusion
Liverpool’s injury list is long and Coutinho’s future unclear, but there are plenty of reasons to believe they can avoid another mid-season slump this time around. They have already navigated the worst of their fixture congestion undefeated, for a start, and the stats suggest Klopp has learned valuable lessons from last season.

The squad has been bolstered by expensively-recruited reinforcements. Liverpool’s attacking options are the envy of other clubs and their defence will be stronger for the arrival of Van Dijk. There are challenges ahead, but this time they look well-placed to overcome them.
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